Air travel trends

December 12, 2013

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has projected some trends in air transport that may have an impact in the north.

IATA sees a few trends:

• Freight cargo by air has been in long term decline for 30 years. Air cargo revenue is also in a short term decline, amounting to about $60B worldwide in 2013.
• Passenger revenue and numbers are growing strongly, increasing to $580B in 2013. The rate of increase is 5.4% per year.
• Worldwide passenger load factors are 79-80%.
• The fastest growth area for passenger revenue is for ancilliaries.
• China will account for 30% of new passenger growth in the 2013-2017 period. Total international passengers will be 292 million, suggesting almost 90 million new Chinese passengers.
• US domestic passengers will increase by 70 million in the 2013-2017 period.
• Jet fuel costs have been more or less flat since 2011.
• IATA believes that Industry net profits next year will be $19.7 billion ( $5.94 per passenger). Hence the industry margins are very thin.

Commentary

Little has been done to attract Chinese tourists into the northern part of North America. As the largest growing market segment of international travel the tourism potential of China holds great promise for the north.

Sources

• a)http://www.iata.org/whatwedo/Documents/economics/IATA-outlook-for-the-airline-industry-December-2013.pdf



• b)Bernard Marotte, "Led by China, number of air travellers expected to fly high by 2017", Globe and Mail, 11-Dec-13, p.B6.